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Thursday, May 29, 2008

Predicting career progression using multiple regression

If my stats Professors - Bob Stine or Richard Waterman happens to read this blog, I'm sure they will be amused about how people like me misuse statistical methods. The title of the post is quite misleading as my intention behind post is not to come up with a regression equation that can predict one's salary after ISB based on some variables.

Swami Vivekananda talked a bit about comparison and the grief attached to it in the book "What Religion is." In that book he says that the most common reason for sadness among people is that they are not better than others in comparison and not that they are doing well. This is the same with almost everyone who is doing this comparison thing. I too have spent many hours in grief by comparing myself with others but slowly realized that comparison is useful only when the subjects are manmade but not men themselves; a little philosophical thought.

But then after finishing MBA and having been exposed to stats and other concepts along with the MBA jargon, I felt that I can do a little better. While there is no change in my opinion that "Comparing oneself with others" is powerful enough to take away all the happiness and confidence in you and in its place fill you either with frustration or overconfidence, which surely will lead to more problems.

Yesterday during the gyan session while people were asking about the roles and salaries, I suddenly realized that each person was trying to compare himself with someone similar and then predict their future based on that. At that point it occurred to me that if we plot the results each student got at ISB after few years, the dots will be all over the place. Not just in two dimensions that we can see but in huge number of dimensions. If we attempt to fit a line through these results we will come up with numbers that are like the average salary, highest domestic salary etc etc. Even to come up with something like that we need to use so many variables and I doubt if any of the factors that we can think of can significantly explain the differences.

Each of us is unique and it is not quite possible to compare us with others. Just look at the stars in the sky. Each one of them is unique; while you may compare them with some simple dimensions such as size, distance from earth, if one considers the fact that the light we are seeing is not the present but surely the past and it is at different time frames, you will understand how silly it is to compare the stars. I think comparing yourself with others or others with you is equally silly and stupid. There are so many variables and some about which we have no clue about and any attempt to fit a line would be in vain.

Only message I want to pass on through this post is, whoever you are, whatever you are and whatever your goals are - you are unique and you cannot measure your happiness and success in comparison with others, you should measure it in your own terms and one's conscience is the best scale that will say it all without even asking. So friends, next time when you say you're doing good/bad/ok etc, ask your conscience what would it say. Only thing you need to do is to know about yourself to gain some meaning from what your conscience says.

I'm not sure if my idea is clear enough and would definitely like to hear what you think

Cheers

5 comments:

  1. Makes perfect sense, but I've seen that unfortunately these thoughts take a backseat in the heat of exams (grade comparison) or placements (pay comparison).

    By the way, I've heard most MBA grads apparently switch jobs in about 6 months after graduation. Is this true? If so, does it indicate that students fall prey to peer pressure and don't really join a firm to enjoy the role, they only join for the sake of company reputation / salary / some such equivalent? Or is the placement process so rushed that folks don't have time to calmly evaluate their options? Either ways, I'd like to hear what you think...

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  2. I agree with you. Despite knowing all this, it is so difficult to restrain from comparison. Old habits die hard. One way is to use comparison just for humor and not for serious decision making.

    I don't agree with the "most" (in terms of %) adjective but I agree that many (sheer numbers) do make changes. It's a question of information asymmetry. Sometimes you expect something and what you get is something else and sometimes you realize that the company for whatever reason has not given what you deserve for and these two are the main reasons for quick switches. Peer pressure is only in terms of salary and time and not so much about the reputation. I've seen people taking up idiosyncratic roles and be very happy with it. I have to agree with the fact that very less time is spent on placements but there is a mismatch of objectives between the college and students. College feels their focus is on academics but students think placement is the bottom line. There is some compromise in the end and I think it'll remain that way even in future. I don't think Markets can be fully predictable even in future and all things that are dependent on their action will have to bear with the issues related to volatility.

    Cheers

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  3. reminds of a line from a monologue called the *Sunscreen*...
    In the end, its a race with yourself* or something like that...BUT..whose there to celebrate with you? U have a race to decide who the best for what-eva-reasons...errr...this is what we are talking about..in some way...right?

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  4. Considering the kind of materialistic world we are living in, the biggest challenge is to pay heed to what our Conscience says on many occasions.

    It all depends on priorities which differ from one person to another.Many of us try to protray a different kind of image, though our inner-self may be different.It is always easier said, but if we really try to be our-SELF, Conscience is what that helps the most.The struggle between our consience and our actual deeds(what we portray our-SELF) is continous ....i may be straying away from the main-point but i really appreciate the thought to use comparision just for humour and not for serious decision-making.It certainly is helpful.

    --Pavan Sarva

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  5. Hmmm...interesting thoughts, Kiran. Well, human-beings are social beings and so importance is given to what society thinks. And if a third person needs to create an opinion (successful or not) on someone, he/she needs to compare that person with a similar one. So, I guess, every one of us, howmuch ever we think of our conscience, still have to compare with somebody of similar profile so that we know what an impression we create on the society we live in. Hope I make sense...

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